Alvin Kamara Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Carries

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 12:35 PM EST

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (+105/-135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game performance when facing windier conditions in this game.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to earn 15.3 rush attempts in this game, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile among running backs.
Alvin Kamara has been given 61.5% of his team's carries this year, ranking in the 91st percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 57.6 plays per game.
The New Orleans Saints O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in football since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
The Minnesota Vikings safeties profile as the best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
The New Orleans Saints have gone up against a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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