Alvin Kamara Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Carries

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 6, 2022 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (+100/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 9th-most run-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 41.5% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 3rd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to total 13.9 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile among running backs.
Alvin Kamara has been given 57.5% of his team's carries this year, putting him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive ends profile as the worst DE corps in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The Saints are a huge 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The New Orleans Saints have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints have gone up against a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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