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Allen Robinson

Allen Robinson Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Allen Robinson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+140/-186).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -177 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +140.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Steelers are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Steelers are forecasted by the projection model to run 67.2 total plays in this game: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 41.5 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
  • Allen Robinson's possession skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 64.8% to 71.5%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.5 plays per game.
  • The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
  • Allen Robinson's 27.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 40.5.
  • The Steelers O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
  • As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Baltimore's collection of safeties has been excellent this year, grading out as the 3rd-best in football.

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