Allen Robinson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Allen Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Allen Robinson

WR · Los Angeles Rams

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Allen Robinson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-109/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -103 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Rams are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 66.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 5th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Allen Robinson has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (93.9% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (82.2%).
Allen Robinson's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Completion% increasing from 59.8% to 64.4%.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Rams offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.1%) to WRs this year (62.1%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks profile as the 4th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Los Angeles Rams have incorporated play action on just 21.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.
The Los Angeles Rams have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 14.7% of the time since the start of last season (4th-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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