Allen Robinson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Allen Robinson

WR · Los Angeles Rams

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Allen Robinson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+130/-160).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 5th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 65.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Allen Robinson to total 8.2 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Allen Robinson to be much more involved in his offense's passing attack this week (22.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (15.5% in games he has played).
Allen Robinson's possession skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% increasing from 59.8% to 64.1%.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 6th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Los Angeles Rams have utilized play action on a measly 21.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.