Allen Robinson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Allen Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Allen Robinson

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Allen Robinson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 31.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 30.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers rank as the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 64.6% pass rate.
The model projects the Steelers to call the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 10th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a massive 60.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Allen Robinson grades out in the 75th percentile among WRs since the start of last season with a colossal 21.0% of his team's air yards accumulated.

Favors Under

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 6th-fewest in the NFL.
Allen Robinson's 30.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 40.5.
Allen Robinson has been among the bottom wideouts in the league at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 3.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 24th percentile.
The Houston Texans defense has surrendered the 3rd-fewest receiving yards per game in football (just 128.0) versus wide receivers since the start of last season.

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