Allen Robinson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Allen Robinson

WR · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Allen Robinson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+237/-377).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -348 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -377.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Rams are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 5th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Allen Robinson's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Completion% increasing from 59.8% to 64.4%.
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line has afforded their QB 2.59 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Los Angeles Rams have gone no-huddle on 15.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects Allen Robinson to be a less important option in his offense's pass attack near the goal line this week (18.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (30.6% in games he has played).
Allen Robinson has compiled quite a few less air yards this season (53.0 per game) than he did last season (71.0 per game).
Allen Robinson's 39.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 50.1.
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.1%) to WRs this year (62.1%).