Allen Robinson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Allen Robinson

WR · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving TD

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Allen Robinson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+176/-257).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +182 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +176.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Allen Robinson has been a key part of his team's pass game near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 23.1% this year, which ranks him in the 85th percentile among wide receivers.
Allen Robinson has put up a whopping 67.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 78th percentile among WRs.
Allen Robinson's 45.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the league leaders: 76th percentile for wide receivers.
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Rams are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 3rd-slowest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 28.46 seconds per play.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the NFL.
Allen Robinson has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL, catching a mere 61.1% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 24th percentile among wide receivers
The Arizona Cardinals safeties profile as the 10th-best group of safeties in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.