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Allen Robinson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+177/-256).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +201 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +177.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 4th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.Allen Robinson has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 19.4% since the start of last season, which places him in the 85th percentile among wide receivers.Allen Robinson has posted a whopping 68.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 78th percentile among wide receivers.Allen Robinson's 46.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the league: 75th percentile for wideouts.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Rams are an enormous 10.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.The Los Angeles Rams have run the 10th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a mere 61.4 plays per game.The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-quickest in the league since the start of last season.The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.The Los Angeles Rams have incorporated play action on a mere 21.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (5th-least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.
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