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Allen Lazard

Allen Lazard Receptions
Player Prop Week 2

Tennessee Titans vs New York Jets

Allen Lazard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+145/-180).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -155 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the New York Jets as the 10th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 59.7% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

New York's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too low (and rushing stats inflated) on account of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league. We should be able to expect some correction with better weather in this game.

With a high 76.6% Snap% (77th percentile) since the start of last season, Allen Lazard has been as one of the running backs with the biggest workloads in the NFL.

Since the start of last season, the poor Titans pass defense has given up a monstrous 71.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the largest rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is implied by the Jets being a 4-point favorite this week.

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The New York O-line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.

With a weak 47.4% Adjusted Catch% (14th percentile) last year, Allen Lazard ranks among the most unreliable receivers in football when it comes to wideouts.

The Titans safeties grade out as the 6th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in defending receivers.

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