Allen Lazard Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Allen Lazard

NFL · Player Props

Allen Lazard

WR · New York Jets

Receptions

New York Jets vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 7, 2023 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Allen Lazard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+100/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets will be forced to start backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see 130.6 total plays run: the 4th-most among all games this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game versus the Chargers defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Los Angeles's collection of CBs has been atrocious this year, grading out as the worst in the league.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 58.8% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
The Jets have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.9 plays per game.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point reduction in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, Allen Lazard has been relied on much less in his offense's passing game.
The New York O-line ranks as the worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful influence on all air attack statistics across the board.
Allen Lazard's 2.5 adjusted catches per game this season signifies an impressive diminishment in his receiving prowess over last season's 4.2 figure.

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