Allen Lazard Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Allen Lazard

NFL · Player Props

Allen Lazard

WR · New York Jets

Receptions

New York Jets vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Allen Lazard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-165/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets may pass less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be rolling with backup QB Zach Wilson.
The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (41.0 per game) this year.
When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Philadelphia's CB corps has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The Jets have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
Right now, the 5th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the New York Jets.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point reduction in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, Allen Lazard has been utilized much less in his offense's passing game.
Allen Lazard's receiving skills have declined this season, averaging just 2.6 adjusted catches compared to 4.2 last season.
This year, the tough Philadelphia Eagles defense has allowed a measly 59.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 6th-best rate in the league.

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