Allen Lazard Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Allen Lazard

WR · New York Jets

Receptions

New York Jets vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Allen Lazard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-136/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -136.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets will be forced to start backup QB Zach Wilson in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Jets are a giant 7.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The Jets have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to lead to increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved offense effectiveness when facing better conditions this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.3 pass attempts per game versus the Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in football.
Allen Lazard has run a route on 92.5% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 94th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

Favors Under

The Jets boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Jets rank as the 7th-least pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 57.7% pass rate.
The projections expect this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.95 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Allen Lazard's receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 63.6% to 56.1%.