Allen Lazard Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Allen Lazard

NFL · Player Props

Allen Lazard

WR · New York Jets

Receptions

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 24, 2023 6:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Allen Lazard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +140 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets may pass less in this week's contest (and call more carries) because they be starting backup QB Tim Boyle.
An extreme passing game script is implied by the Jets being a huge -9.5-point underdog this week.
The projections expect the New York Jets to be the 7th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
This year, the poor Dolphins pass defense has yielded a massive 71.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 4th-highest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the New York Jets are predicted by our trusted projection set to run only 64.0 offensive plays in this contest: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Jets have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.4 plays per game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) generally prompt worse passing effectiveness, lower air attack volume, and higher rush volume.
The Jets O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Miami's safety corps has been tremendous this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the league.

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