Allen Lazard Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Allen Lazard

NFL · Player Props

Allen Lazard

WR · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs New York Jets · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Allen Lazard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+140/-180).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -175 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Allen Lazard has been less involved as a potential target this season (93.2% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (77.3%).
THE BLITZ projects Allen Lazard to notch 6.7 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile among wide receivers.
Allen Lazard's receiving talent has been refined this year, averaging 4.2 yards per game vs a mere 2.8 last year.
The New York Jets pass defense has given up the 7th-highest Completion% in the NFL (68.8%) vs. WRs this year (68.8%).
The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Packers are an enormous 7.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 7th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 57.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game against the New York Jets defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
The New York Jets cornerbacks grade out as the 5th-best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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