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Allen Lazard

Allen Lazard Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

New York Jets vs Denver Broncos

Allen Lazard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the present time, the 4th-most pass-heavy team in football (63.1% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the New York Jets.

New York's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially deflated (and rushing stats propped up a bit) as a result of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL. We should be able to expect some regression with improved conditions in this week's contest.

Allen Lazard has run a route on 84.2% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 75th percentile among wide receivers.

Allen Lazard's 69.9% Adjusted Catch Rate this season shows a significant gain in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 47.4% rate.

Allen Lazard's pass-catching efficiency has been refined this season, notching 10.71 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a measly 6.66 figure last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's line indicates a rushing game script for the Jets, who are favored by 6 points.

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Jets are forecasted by the model to run only 62.8 plays on offense in this contest: the 10th-lowest number on the slate this week.

The Jets offensive line grades out as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.

The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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