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Allen Lazard

Allen Lazard Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 17

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

Allen Lazard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -10-point disadvantage, the Jets are massive underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of a focus on throwing than their normal game plan.

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jets to pass on 62.9% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.

The Buffalo Bills defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (36.0 per game) this year.

After averaging 43.0 air yards per game last year, Allen Lazard has seen marked improvement this year, now boasting 60.0 per game.

Allen Lazard's 39.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 29.7.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have just 127.0 total plays called: the fewest among all games this week.

The Jets have called the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 55.9 plays per game.

The weatherman calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

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