Allen Lazard Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Allen Lazard

NFL · Player Props

Allen Lazard

WR · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 7, 2023 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Allen Lazard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-148/+112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 33.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ +112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets will be forced to start backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see 130.6 total plays run: the 4th-most among all games this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game versus the Chargers defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
This year, the weak Chargers defense has given up a staggering 202.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing wide receivers: the most in the NFL.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 58.8% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
The Jets have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.9 plays per game.
Allen Lazard has totaled significantly fewer air yards this season (54.0 per game) than he did last season (84.0 per game).
With a RATE1-RATE2 point reduction in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, Allen Lazard has been relied on much less in his offense's passing game.
The New York O-line ranks as the worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful influence on all air attack statistics across the board.

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