Allen Lazard Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Allen Lazard

NFL · Player Props

Allen Lazard

WR · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Allen Lazard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 32.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 34.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets may pass less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be rolling with backup QB Zach Wilson.
The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (41.0 per game) this year.
Allen Lazard's pass-game efficiency has gotten better this year, accumulating 10.62 adjusted yards-per-target vs a mere 8.53 rate last year.
When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Philadelphia's CB corps has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The Jets have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
Right now, the 5th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the New York Jets.
After accumulating 84.0 air yards per game last season, Allen Lazard has seen a big downtick this season, currently averaging 57.0 per game.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point reduction in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, Allen Lazard has been utilized much less in his offense's passing game.
Allen Lazard has put up substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (42.0) this year than he did last year (56.0).

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