Allen Lazard Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Allen Lazard

NFL · Player Props

Allen Lazard

WR · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs New York Jets · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 3:01 AM EST

Analysis

Allen Lazard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-122/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 36.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 33.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets will be forced to use backup QB Zach Wilson in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
Allen Lazard's receiving efficiency has gotten better this year, accumulating 10.68 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a measly 8.53 mark last year.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing WRs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 6.02 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-most in the NFL.
As it relates to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Denver's collection of CBs has been awful this year, grading out as the worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the New York Jets are anticipated by the projection model to run just 61.1 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The New York Jets have called the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 49.5 plays per game.
Allen Lazard has put up quite a few less air yards this season (62.0 per game) than he did last season (84.0 per game).
Allen Lazard's 43.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 54.3.
Allen Lazard's 43.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year shows a a substantial decrease in his pass-catching skills over last year's 56.0 mark.

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