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Allen Lazard

Allen Lazard Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

New York Jets vs Washington Commanders

Allen Lazard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the present time, the 9th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (63.4% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Jets.

At a mere 27.18 seconds per play, the New York Jets offense profiles as the 10th-fastest paced in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year.

The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may go down.

This year, the weak Washington Commanders defense has been gouged for a whopping 191.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing WRs: the worst in the NFL.

This year, the poor Commanders defense has given up the most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing WRs: a staggering 9.89 yards.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is suggested by the Jets being a 3-point favorite in this week's game.

Allen Lazard's 12.6% Target% this year represents a material drop-off in his pass game utilization over last year's 21.3% rate.

Allen Lazard has accumulated quite a few less air yards this year (46.0 per game) than he did last year (84.0 per game).

The Jets O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

Allen Lazard has notched quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (27.0) this year than he did last year (56.0).

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