Allen Lazard Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Allen Lazard

NFL · Player Props

Allen Lazard

WR · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 3:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Allen Lazard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 23.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Zach Wilson.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Jets to pass on 60.0% of their plays: the 7th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.
The Raiders pass defense has allowed the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (71.4%) to wide receivers this year (71.4%).
This year, the anemic Las Vegas Raiders defense has been torched for the 6th-most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing wideouts: a whopping 4.93 YAC.

Favors Under

The model projects the Jets to call the 4th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The Jets have run the 9th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 55.4 plays per game.
Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Las Vegas Raiders, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in football (just 33.8 per game) this year.
Allen Lazard has accumulated quite a few less air yards this year (54.0 per game) than he did last year (84.0 per game).
Allen Lazard's 37.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 54.3.

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