Allen Lazard Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Allen Lazard

WR · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Allen Lazard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 40.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 40.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Allen Lazard to be a much bigger part of his offense's air attack this week (18.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (12.1% in games he has played).
Allen Lazard has been among the most efficient pass-catchers in football, averaging an impressive 9.41 yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 83rd percentile among wideouts.
The New England Patriots defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Green Bay Packers have used some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the NFL), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

The Packers are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 11th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a measly 58.4 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.
The New England Patriots defense has allowed the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 126.0) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season.