Allen Lazard Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Allen Lazard

NFL · Player Props

Allen Lazard

WR · Green Bay Packers

Receiving TD

Green Bay Packers vs New York Jets · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Allen Lazard Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+200/-260).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Allen Lazard has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 22.7% this year, which places him in the 86th percentile among wide receivers.
Allen Lazard has put up far more air yards this season (82.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game).
Allen Lazard's 55.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 28.8.
Allen Lazard grades out in the 96th percentile among WRs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging an impressive 0.75 per game.
The New York Jets pass defense has given up the 7th-highest Completion% in the NFL (68.8%) vs. WRs this year (68.8%).

Favors Under

The Packers are an enormous 7.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game against the New York Jets defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
The New York Jets cornerbacks grade out as the 5th-best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has afforded their quarterback a measly 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.

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