Allen Lazard Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Allen Lazard

WR · Green Bay Packers

Receiving TD

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Allen Lazard Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+190/-284).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +232 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +190.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Allen Lazard has been a key part of his team's pass game near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 27.3% this year, which ranks him in the 90th percentile among WRs.
Allen Lazard ranks in the 95th percentile among WRs as it relates to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 0.59 per game.
The New England Patriots defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Green Bay Packers have used some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the NFL), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

The Packers are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The Green Bay Packers have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a measly 58.4 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.
The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the league (60.6%) to wideouts since the start of last season (60.6%).
The New England Patriots defense has allowed the 6th-least TDs through the air in the NFL to WRs: 0.80 per game since the start of last season.