Allen Lazard Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Allen Lazard

NFL · Player Props

Allen Lazard

WR · Green Bay Packers

Receiving TD

Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Allen Lazard Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+201/-309).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +234 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +201.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
Allen Lazard has been a key part of his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 28.6% this year, which ranks him in the 93rd percentile among WRs.
Allen Lazard has accumulated quite a few more air yards this year (95.0 per game) than he did last year (44.0 per game).
Allen Lazard's 57.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 28.8.
The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers offense to be the 3rd-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 30.07 seconds per play.
The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Allen Lazard's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 69.9% to 61.4%.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has yielded the lowest Completion% in football (57.8%) to wide receivers this year (57.8%).
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has allowed the 5th-least passing touchdowns in the NFL to wide receivers: 0.60 per game this year.

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