Allen Lazard Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Allen Lazard

NFL · Player Props

Allen Lazard

WR · Green Bay Packers

Receiving TD

Green Bay Packers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 18, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Allen Lazard Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+230/-310).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing teams have averaged 43.8 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the NFL.
Allen Lazard has put up far more air yards this season (85.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game).
Allen Lazard's 54.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 28.8.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Allen Lazard grades out in the 95th percentile among wideouts when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a terrific 0.62 per game.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Allen Lazard to be a less important option in his team's passing offense near the goal line this week (23.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (28.9% in games he has played).
Allen Lazard's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 69.9% to 63.8%.
The Tennessee Titans safeties rank as the 3rd-best unit in football this year in covering receivers.

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