Alexander Mattison Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Alexander Mattison

NFL · Player Props

Alexander Mattison

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Rushing Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 24, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Alexander Mattison Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 43.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 45.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week, Alexander Mattison is predicted by the model to finish in the 76th percentile among running backs with 12.6 carries.
After making up 17.8% of his offense's run game usage last season, Alexander Mattison has been called on more in the rushing attack this season, currently sitting at 73.9%.
Alexander Mattison has run for quite a few more adjusted yards per game (51.0) this season than he did last season (16.0).

Favors Under

This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Vikings, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Minnesota Vikings to run on 31.0% of their chances: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The predictive model expects the Vikings to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Vikings have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.3 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

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