Alexander Mattison Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Alexander Mattison

NFL · Player Props

Alexander Mattison

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Rushing Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Alexander Mattison Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 52.5 (-130/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
This week, Alexander Mattison is projected by the projections to slot into the 76th percentile among running backs with 13.0 carries.
Alexander Mattison has been a much bigger part of his offense's running game this season (56.6% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (17.8%).
Alexander Mattison has rushed for quite a few more adjusted yards per game (49.0) this year than he did last year (16.0).
The Raiders defense has produced the 7th-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, allowing 4.71 adjusted yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

The Minnesota Vikings will be forced to use backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Minnesota Vikings to run on 39.3% of their downs: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast the Vikings to run the 10th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 64.3 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.
As it relates to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Las Vegas's collection of DEs has been very good this year, profiling as the best in the league.

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