Alexander Mattison Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

Alexander Mattison

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Rushing Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Alexander Mattison Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 60.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 45.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 60.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the projection model to see 132.2 plays on offense called: the highest number among all games this week.
The leading projections forecast Alexander Mattison to accrue 14.3 rush attempts in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile when it comes to running backs.
After making up 17.8% of his offense's carries last season, Alexander Mattison has played a bigger part in the rushing attack this season, now accounting for 63.3%.
Alexander Mattison's 48.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season shows a significant boost in his running ability over last season's 16.0 rate.
The Saints defense has had the 8th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, allowing 4.55 adjusted yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

The Vikings will be rolling with backup QB Joshua Dobbs in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to be the 4th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 36.9% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.
With a dreadful total of 3.51 adjusted yards per carry (19th percentile) this year, Alexander Mattison ranks among the worst RBs in the league at the position.
Alexander Mattison is positioned as one of the weakest RBs in football at generating extra running yardage, averaging just 2.43 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 19th percentile.