Alexander Mattison Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Alexander Mattison

NFL · Player Props

Alexander Mattison

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Rushing Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Alexander Mattison Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 64.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 57.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 64.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 60.7 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Alexander Mattison to total 14.6 carries in this game, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Alexander Mattison to be a more integral piece of his offense's rushing attack this week (61.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (17.8% in games he has played).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 36.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

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