Alexander Mattison Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Alexander Mattison

NFL · Player Props

Alexander Mattison

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Rushing Yards

Washington Commanders vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Alexander Mattison Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-102/-129).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in football this year at blocking for rushers.

Favors Under

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 5th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 37.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Alexander Mattison has been a much smaller piece of his offense's run game this season (22.2% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (34.3%).
Alexander Mattison has run for quite a few less yards per game (20.0) this year than he did last year (32.0).
The Washington Commanders defensive ends project as the 7th-best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

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