Alexander Mattison Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Alexander Mattison

NFL · Player Props

Alexander Mattison

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Rushing Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Alexander Mattison Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (+110/-138).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -138.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.83 seconds per play.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the most yards in football (189 per game) vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year.
The Chicago Bears defensive tackles project as the 3rd-worst unit in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

Favors Under

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 11th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 38.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Alexander Mattison has been a much smaller part of his team's rushing attack this season (21.8% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (34.3%).
Alexander Mattison has run for substantially fewer yards per game (19.0) this year than he did last year (32.0).

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