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Alexander Mattison

Alexander Mattison Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 4

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings

Alexander Mattison Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-110/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Vikings are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 134.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 4th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this game.

The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.6% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-least run-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 36.1% run rate.

Alexander Mattison's ground effectiveness (3.82 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league since the start of last season (21st percentile among running backs).

The New Orleans Saints defense boasts the best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, giving up just 3.91 yards-per-carry.

The New Orleans Saints defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-best collection of DTs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

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