Alexander Mattison Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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NFL · Player Props

Alexander Mattison

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Rushing Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Giants · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

Alexander Mattison Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+104/-128).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 60.7 plays per game.
The New York Giants defense has had the worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, conceding 5.28 yards-per-carry.
The New York Giants have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.2% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 2nd-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 35.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Alexander Mattison has been a much smaller piece of his offense's run game this year (18.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (34.3%).
Alexander Mattison has rushed for quite a few less yards per game (16.0) this year than he did last year (32.0).