Alexander Mattison Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Alexander Mattison

NFL · Player Props

Alexander Mattison

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Rushing Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs New England Patriots · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 25, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Alexander Mattison Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-101/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -123 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -101.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line profiles as the 6th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.
The New England Patriots defensive tackles rank as the 4th-worst unit in football this year in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.7% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 4th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 35.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Alexander Mattison has been much less involved in his offense's rushing attack this year (19.1% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (34.3%).
Alexander Mattison has rushed for many fewer yards per game (15.0) this year than he did last year (32.0).

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