Alexander Mattison Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Alexander Mattison

NFL · Player Props

Alexander Mattison

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Rushing TD

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 4:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Alexander Mattison Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+252/-429).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +391 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +252.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 134.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Vikings have been the 2nd-least run-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year with a 20.7% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Alexander Mattison to be much less involved in his offense's running game near the end zone this week (27.9% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (50.0% in games he has played).
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 6th-least TDs in football (0.70 per game) vs. the New Orleans Saints defense since the start of last season.
The New Orleans Saints defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-best collection of DTs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.
The Minnesota Vikings have been faced with a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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