Alexander Mattison Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Alexander Mattison

NFL · Player Props

Alexander Mattison

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Rushing TD

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 24, 2022 5:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Alexander Mattison Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+431/-975).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +437 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +431.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings are a 6-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 123.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have run for the 3rd-most TDs in football (1.26 per game) against the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season.
The Detroit Lions defensive ends profile as the worst group of DEs in football since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The Vikings rank as the 3rd-least run-oriented team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 15.2% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Alexander Mattison to be a less important option in his team's run game near the end zone this week (25.4% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (41.2% in games he has played).
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in football since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
The Minnesota Vikings have been faced with a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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