Alexander Mattison Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Alexander Mattison

NFL · Player Props

Alexander Mattison

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Rushing TD

Minnesota Vikings vs New England Patriots · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 23, 2022 11:26 PM EST

Analysis

Alexander Mattison Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+431/-974).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +433 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +431.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.
The New England Patriots defensive tackles rank as the 4th-worst unit in football this year in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 8th-least run-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 39.6% red zone run rate.
Opposing offenses have run for the 2nd-least TDs in the league (0.40 per game) against the New England Patriots defense this year.
The Minnesota Vikings have faced a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on just 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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