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Alexander Mattison

Alexander Mattison Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings

Alexander Mattison Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-180/+150).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs this week, implying more of an emphasis on passing than their usual game plan.

The model projects the Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Vikings are forecasted by the projection model to call 65.5 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.

The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.

Alexander Mattison has gone out for more passes this year (49.9% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (22.0%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Alexander Mattison's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 83.9% to 70.5%.

The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (76.1%) to RBs this year (76.1%).

As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Atlanta's collection of safeties has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 9th-best in the NFL.

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