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Alexander Mattison

Alexander Mattison Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Carolina Panthers vs Minnesota Vikings

Alexander Mattison Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-155/+125).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 63.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The projections expect this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Minnesota Vikings have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 60.6 plays per game.

Alexander Mattison has been more involved as a potential target this year (56.8% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (22.0%).

The predictive model expects Alexander Mattison to garner 3.7 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile among running backs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Vikings are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.

The Vikings have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to lead to lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions this week.

Alexander Mattison's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 83.9% to 74.8%.

As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Carolina's safety corps has been fantastic since the start of last season, grading out as the 9th-best in football.

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