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Alexander Mattison

Alexander Mattison Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings

Alexander Mattison Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+165/-225).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.6% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.9% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 134.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The New Orleans Saints defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-most sluggish in the NFL since the start of last season.

The Minnesota Vikings have been faced with a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Vikings are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.

The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 4th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this game.

The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

Alexander Mattison's sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 83.5% to 64.9%.

The New Orleans Saints pass defense has surrendered the lowest Completion% in the NFL (68.5%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (68.5%).

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