Alexander Mattison Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Alexander Mattison

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 22, 2022 6:40 PM UTC

Analysis

Alexander Mattison Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+150/-208).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 6th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.8% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 123.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Detroit Lions safeties rank as the 3rd-worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 6-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in football.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Alexander Mattison's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 83.5% to 56.2%.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.