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Alexander Mattison

Alexander Mattison Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 8

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings

Alexander Mattison Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 5th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 62.3% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Vikings are predicted by the predictive model to run 66.3 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.

Alexander Mattison has run more routes this year (50.8% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (22.0%).

The leading projections forecast Alexander Mattison to total 3.5 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 78th percentile when it comes to running backs.

Alexander Mattison has put up a staggering 3.0 air yards per game this year: 87th percentile among running backs. (That might not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Vikings have run the 9th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 56.1 plays per game.

Alexander Mattison's 69.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this year reflects a substantial decrease in his pass-catching skills over last year's 83.9% rate.

Alexander Mattison's 3.9 adjusted yards per target this year shows a material reduction in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 5.8 mark.

Alexander Mattison's 5.80 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year represents an impressive reduction in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last year's 7.9% rate.

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