Alexander Mattison Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Alexander Mattison

NFL · Player Props

Alexander Mattison

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 24, 2023 2:51 AM EST

Analysis

Alexander Mattison Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Vikings, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 69.0% of their plays: the highest rate among all teams this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
The projections expect Alexander Mattison to accumulate 4.7 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Vikings to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Vikings have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.3 plays per game.
Alexander Mattison's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 83.9% to 69.6%.
Alexander Mattison's 4.2 adjusted yards per target this year marks a a noteable diminishment in his receiving talent over last year's 5.8 rate.
Alexander Mattison's skills in generating extra yardage have tailed off this season, accumulating just 6.11 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 7.93 mark last season.

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