Alexander Mattison Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Alexander Mattison

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Alexander Mattison Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-112/-117).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 63.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 60.6 plays per game.
Alexander Mattison has been more involved as a potential target this year (56.8% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (22.0%).
The predictive model expects Alexander Mattison to garner 3.7 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
The Vikings have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to lead to lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions this week.
When talking about air yards, Alexander Mattison grades out in just the 21st percentile among running backs since the start of last season, accruing just -1.0 per game.
Alexander Mattison's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 83.9% to 74.8%.
Alexander Mattison's receiving effectiveness has tailed off this year, averaging a measly 3.67 yards-per-target vs a 5.84 rate last year.