Alexander Mattison Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Alexander Mattison

NFL · Player Props

Alexander Mattison

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 28, 2023 12:51 AM EST

Analysis

Alexander Mattison Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -109 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
Our trusted projections expect the Vikings as the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 61.6% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 40.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Bears defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
Alexander Mattison has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this year (49.1% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (22.0%).

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script.
The model projects this game to have the fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Alexander Mattison's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 83.9% to 70.3%.
Alexander Mattison's pass-catching effectiveness has declined this season, compiling a measly 4.49 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 5.84 mark last season.
Alexander Mattison's talent in grinding out extra yardage have worsened this year, accumulating just 5.96 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 7.93 figure last year.

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