Alexander Mattison Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

Alexander Mattison

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Alexander Mattison Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings will be rolling with backup QB Joshua Dobbs in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 63.1% of their plays: the 4th-highest clip on the slate this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the projection model to see 132.2 plays on offense called: the highest number among all games this week.
The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.
Alexander Mattison's 49.8% Route Participation Rate this season indicates a remarkable progression in his air attack workload over last season's 22.0% figure.

Favors Under

Alexander Mattison's 72.3% Adjusted Catch Rate this year shows a noteworthy decrease in his pass-catching ability over last year's 83.9% figure.
Alexander Mattison's 4.9 adjusted yards per target this season indicates an impressive decrease in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 5.8 rate.
Alexander Mattison's 6.09 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season shows a material regression in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last season's 7.9% mark.
This year, the stout New Orleans Saints defense has allowed a mere 25.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing RBs: the 7th-best in the league.
The Saints pass defense has allowed the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (75.4%) to running backs this year (75.4%).