Alexander Mattison Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Alexander Mattison

NFL · Player Props

Alexander Mattison

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Alexander Mattison Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 60.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Alexander Mattison to accumulate 3.0 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Alexander Mattison has accumulated a meager -2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 9th percentile among RBs.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Alexander Mattison has been among the weakest pass-catching running backs since the start of last season, averaging a mere 6.0 yards per game while ranking in the 24th percentile among RBs.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has conceded the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 24.0) to RBs since the start of last season.

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