Alexander Mattison Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Alexander Mattison

NFL · Player Props

Alexander Mattison

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Alexander Mattison Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-118/-112).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.62 seconds per snap.
Alexander Mattison's ability to pick up extra yardage has gotten better this year, compiling 9.75 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 8.47 rate last year.
The Miami Dolphins defense has allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards per game in the league (54.0) versus RBs this year.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
Alexander Mattison has totaled a meager -2.0 air yards per game this year: just 11th percentile among running backs.
Alexander Mattison's possession skills have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 83.6% to 74.4%.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has been quite strong when opposing running backs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 6.26 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in football.
The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

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